On 14 October 2026 the Finance Secretariat's Treasury auction offered four instruments, all settled in pesos, and no dollar bond (Ministry of Economy, auction results, 14 October 2026). The missing instrument is the AO29, the local-law dollar bond the Treasury began selling in July; the results notice gives no reason for leaving it out.
The AO29 carries the second half of the government's local dollar borrowing. The ministry's July financing program counts USD 6.0bn of local issuance in 2026, of which USD 4.0bn had already been raised through the AO27 and AO28 (Ministry of Economy, Programa Financiero Argentino, July 2026). After its 29 July reopening the AO29 had USD 976m outstanding, against the USD 2.0bn left to raise (Ministry of Economy, auction results, 29 July 2026).
That matters because local dollar issuance is the largest single source in the government's plan for 2027, the year of the October 2027 presidential election. The question for a holder of Globales or Bonares is whether the plan pays the January and July 2027 coupons and amortizations, and what it depends on.
The requirement: USD 24.9bn in 2027, half of it to bondholders
The Ministry of Economy published its 2026-2027 financing program on 6 July 2026. It counts only the Treasury's dollar obligations and the dollar sources set against them.
| Bondholders are owed USD 12.5bn of the USD 24.9bn due in 2027 (USD bn) | Principal | Interest | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| IMF | 4.4 | 3.1 | 7.5 |
| Bonares (Argentine law) | 4.9 | 1.9 | 6.8 |
| Globales (New York law) | 3.6 | 2.1 | 5.7 |
| Other international organizations | 2.8 | 2.1 | 4.9 |
| Total | 15.7 | 9.2 | 24.9 |
Source: Ministry of Economy, Finance Secretariat, Programa Financiero Argentino, presented 6 July 2026. Rows may not add because of rounding.
Bondholders are owed USD 12.5bn in 2027, more than half the total, and slightly more of it falls under local law than under New York law. The 2026 requirement in the same document was USD 19.2bn, so the bill rises by USD 5.7bn in a single year. Both bond series pay on 9 January and 9 July, so the bondholder share arrives in two lumps.
The stock: USD 474bn, more than half payable in foreign currency
Gross central government debt was USD 474.2bn at the end of June 2026, of which USD 471.7bn was performing; the remaining USD 2.5bn is debt still pending restructuring or in deferred payment (Finance Secretariat, monthly debt bulletin, June 2026). Of the performing debt, 53% is payable in foreign currency and 47% in pesos. Official external creditors, the IMF among them, hold USD 99.2bn, or 21.1% of the performing debt. The bulletin counts dollar-denominated debt that pays in pesos as local currency, so the foreign-currency share understates the debt whose value moves with the exchange rate.
Measured against the economy, federal government debt was 80.3% of GDP at the end of 2025, and the IMF projects 73.2% for the end of 2026 (IMF, press release on the second review of the Extended Fund Facility, 21 May 2026).
The fiscal base: interest from the surplus, principal from new money
The program's stated rule is that new debt only refinances inherited principal and that interest is paid from the fiscal surplus (Ministry of Economy, 6 July 2026). That puts the primary balance at the center of the 2027 test, because USD 9.2bn of interest is due.
The primary surplus was 1.8% of GDP in 2024 and 1.4% in 2025 (IMF, 21 May 2026). In September 2026 the national public sector posted a primary surplus of ARS 1.43tn and an overall surplus of ARS 0.98tn, according to figures the ministry released on 16 October 2026. The Argentine Institute of Fiscal Analysis (IARAF) estimated the January-September primary surplus at about 1.2% of GDP in its reading of that release, published the same day. The IMF's 21 May release projects revenue falling from 15.9% of GDP in 2025 to 15.5% in 2026, with primary spending falling from 14.6% to 14.1%: the surplus is being held by spending cuts against a shrinking revenue base.
The economy: disinflation has stalled and activity dipped in July
Consumer prices rose 117.8% over 2024 and 31.5% over 2025, and the economy grew 4.4% in 2025 (IMF, 21 May 2026).
The 2026 data are weaker. Prices rose 1.9% in September, 33.4% over twelve months and 23.6% in the first nine months of the year (INDEC, 13 October 2026). The IMF's May projection was 25.0% for the whole of 2026, so with a quarter of the year left, the cumulative figure is within 1.4 points of it. Activity fell 1.4% year on year in July and 2.9% from June on a seasonally adjusted basis, after growing 2.7% year on year in June (INDEC, monthly activity estimator, 24 September and 20 August 2026). The IMF's projection for 2026 growth is 3.5%.
Slower growth and stickier inflation both bear on the fiscal rule: revenue follows activity, and a peso that loses value faster raises the peso cost of every dollar of interest.
What the market says: upgrades, and still the region's widest spread
The rating agencies have moved together this year. Fitch raised Argentina to B- from CCC+ in May 2026. S&P raised it to B- from CCC+ on 10 June 2026, with a stable outlook. Moody's raised it to B3 from Caa1 on 21 July 2026, moved the outlook to positive and, in the same announcement, named the October 2027 election as a source of possible policy change.
In SQX's evaluated prices of 20 October 2026, Argentina's dollar curve was the only one of the six large markets that falls with maturity: its bonds due within five years yielded more than its long bonds, while Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, Chile and Peru all paid more for longer money. An inverted curve says investors see more risk in the payments due through 2027 and 2028 than in the decades after them, which is the same window the financing plan has to bridge.
The upgrades have not closed the gap with the region either. In SQX's evaluated prices of 20 October 2026, Argentina's dollar government bonds carried the widest median credit spread of the Latin American governments with five or more priced dollar bonds, and the highest median yield.
Argentina's short bonds yield more than its long ones. SQX evaluated yields of Argentina's 48 US-dollar government bonds on 20 October 2026 that mature at least a year after that date, by maturity band, in percent. Bonds due within five years carry a median yield 261 basis points above bonds due in ten years or more. Source: SQX evaluated prices.
Argentina's median dollar yield and spread are the region's highest. Government US-dollar bonds SQX priced on 20 October 2026 that mature at least a year after that date, for the 19 countries with five or more such bonds (issuers typed as central governments in reference data): count, median yield and median credit spread. Source: SQX evaluated prices.
| Country | USD government bonds priced | Median yield, % | Median credit spread, bp |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 48 | 10.68 | 580 |
| Bahamas | 5 | 6.92 | 220 |
| Bolivia | 6 | 8.87 | 409 |
| Brazil | 22 | 6.44 | 150 |
| Chile | 24 | 6.15 | 85 |
| Colombia | 35 | 7.40 | 235 |
| Costa Rica | 40 | 6.16 | 127 |
| Dominican Republic | 48 | 6.99 | 193 |
| Ecuador | 28 | 9.90 | 500 |
| El Salvador | 39 | 7.72 | 288 |
| Guatemala | 33 | 6.48 | 144 |
| Honduras | 8 | 6.61 | 167 |
| Jamaica | 6 | 6.37 | 127 |
| Mexico | 41 | 7.10 | 195 |
| Panama | 33 | 6.19 | 121 |
| Paraguay | 24 | 6.03 | 100 |
| Peru | 27 | 6.39 | 105 |
| Trinidad and Tobago | 10 | 6.89 | 179 |
| Uruguay | 9 | 5.94 | 79 |
The funding menu: a third of the 2027 sources are not yet raised
The ministry's 2027 sources add up to the requirement. They differ in what each one costs and what it leaves behind.
| A third of the USD 24.9bn of 2027 sources is unissued or unspecified (USD bn) | Amount | What it leaves behind |
|---|---|---|
| Balance carried over from the 2026 program | 3.7 | Money already raised, mostly by new borrowing in 2026 |
| Treasury purchases of dollars from the central bank | 4.9 | No new debt; draws on the central bank's reserves |
| Rollover within the public sector | 1.8 | A postponed maturity |
| IMF disbursements | 1.7 | New IMF debt, conditional on program reviews |
| Other international organizations | 4.2 | New official debt |
| Local market issuance | 5.0 | New local-law dollar bonds |
| Other sources of financing | 2.0 | Not specified |
| Privatizations | 1.5 | A one-off receipt |
| International bond issuance | none |
Source: Ministry of Economy, Finance Secretariat, Programa Financiero Argentino, presented 6 July 2026. The listed sources sum to USD 24.8bn against a USD 24.9bn requirement because of rounding.
The plan does not include a return to international markets in 2027. The 2026 surplus of USD 3.7bn rests partly on USD 4.0bn of 2026 loans carrying guarantees from international organizations. Those loans swap a bond maturity for a loan maturity: the Treasury has more cash on hand, and the debt stock is the same size. The sources that are unspecified or not yet realized are a large share of the whole: "other sources" and privatizations together are USD 3.5bn, 14% of the requirement, and local issuance adds another USD 5.0bn, 20%. Together they are about a third of the 2027 bill.
The Finance Secretary, Federico Furiase, said on 29 June 2026 that the 2026-2027 program "is already closed" with financing strategies that cost less than international banks (Ministry of Economy). The 14 October auction, which offered no dollar bond, tests the local leg of that claim.
Dollar liquidity: USD 50.2bn gross, less of it usable
Gross international reserves at the central bank were USD 50.2bn on 19 October 2026, after a low of USD 46.1bn on 30 September (BCRA, international reserves series). Gross reserves overstate what is usable: they include items the central bank cannot freely spend, and the IMF's press release of 21 May 2026 on the second program review records that Argentina missed its end-2025 target for net international reserves.
The plan asks the central bank for USD 4.9bn of dollars in 2027. To supply them without running reserves down, the central bank has to buy dollars in the market, which means issuing pesos and accepting a weaker exchange rate, or absorbing those pesos at a cost. A stronger peso helps inflation; buying dollars helps the 2027 bill. The central bank cannot maximize both.
The calendar: both bond dates fall before the vote
Bondholders are paid on 9 January and 9 July 2027. IMF charges and repurchases fall through the year. The presidential election is in October 2027, after both bond dates. Each source in the plan has to arrive before the payment it funds: the local market has to reopen, the official lenders have to disburse after their reviews, and the privatizations have to close, all before the October 2027 vote.
The trade-off
The 2027 plan works if local dollar borrowing resumes and the central bank buys dollars before 9 July 2027. If the AO29 stays off the auction menu, the USD 5.0bn local leg of the 2027 plan falls on the central bank, on top of the USD 4.9bn the plan already asks of it, and every one of those dollars must be bought with pesos or taken from reserves that missed their IMF target at the end of 2025. The first dated test is the 9 January 2027 payment, which the Treasury has to fund from the 2026 balance and whatever the local market and the central bank supply in the next eleven weeks. The open question is whether the government protects the peso or the reserve buffer when the two pull apart.
SQX publishes evaluated end-of-day prices, yields and durations for Argentina's Globales and Bonares, bond by bond, every business day. Send us the ISINs of the Argentine bonds you hold and we will tell you which we price and send a sample; the data dictionary lists every field you would receive.